1 Game Profile

1.1 Estimated Outcomes on BGG

This table displays the selected game’s current values on four BGG outcomes (UsersRated, Average, GeekRating, Weight) along with my predictive model(s) estimated values for where these games are likely to end up.

Published	ID	Name	Type	UserRatings	Average	GeekRating	Weight
2021	318560	Witchstone	Current	1,321	7.71	6.44	2.69
			Estimated	400	7.44	5.85	2.83

To see more information about the game on boardgamegeek, click on the game’s ID or Name to go straight to the game’s profile page.

1.2 Game Description

Description
As established representatives of your guild, you gather around an ancient sacred stone, the significance and magical powers of which are known to adepts only. Each player occupies one of the four towers around the Witchstone and starts from there. Create your magic spells with the help of your cauldron, and put a network of magic energy around the stone. Send out your witches, scoop the magic crystals out of the cauldron, make use of the pentagram and the magic wand, and keep an eye on the prophecy scrolls in order to ensure victory. Not all options are always available to you. Only if you cleverly make the most of your opportunities will you have the chance of accumulating the most victory points over the eleven rounds and thereby win Witchstone. Each player in the game has a personal cauldron that bears seven crystals and six pre-printed magic icons, and they share a larger game board that features a crystal ball that shows the entire landscape. Each player has a set of fifteen domino tiles, with each half of the domino being a hexagon; each domino depicts two different magic icons from the six used in the game. On a turn, you place one of the five face-up dominos in your reserve onto your cauldron, then you take the action associated with each icon depicted on that domino; if the icon is adjacent to other dominos showing the same icon (or the matching pre-printed icon), then you can take that action as many times as the number of icons in that cluster. You must complete the first type of action completely before taking the second action. With these actions, you can: Use energy to connect your starting tower to other locations on the game board, scoring 1, 3 or 6 points depending on the length of the connection. Place witches next to your starting tower on the game board or move them across your energy network to other locations. As you do this, you gain points and possibly additional actions to use the same turn. Move your token around a pentagram to collect points and to acquire bonus hex tiles; you can use these tiles immediately for actions or place them in your cauldron to make future tile placement more valuable. Move the crystals in your cauldron, whether to make room for future tile placement or to gain bonus actions by ejecting the crystal completely. Advance on a magic wand to gain points and take additional actions, with the actions being doubled should you currently be the most advanced player on the wand. Claim scroll cards that boost future actions or earn you bonus points at game's end depending on how well you've completed the prophecy depicted. After each player has completed eleven turns — which could equal 40-60 actions depending on how well you've used your cauldron — the game ends and players tally their points from prophecies and other collected scoring markers to see who has the highest score.

1.3 Game Information

Information on the game’s designers, artists, families, mechanics and categories from BGG.

For the full profile of the selected game, click on the links in the table or go to https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/318560

1.4 Explaining Predictions

For each of the predictions above, I used models that were trained on historical boardgamegeek data in order to predict the selected game. How did the model(s) arrive at their predictions? The following plot displays Shapley values to indicate what features were most influential for the model’s predictions. Anything in blue increased the model’s predictions, anything in red decreased the model’s predictions.

2 Finding Similar Games

What games are similar to Witchstone? I compare the selected game to every other game on boardgamegeek based on its mechanics, playing time, complexity, and game type. The tables below display the games which had the most similar data to Witchstone. The reported similarity is the cosine similarity between the selected game and all other games published before 2021.

This similarity score ranges from -1 to 1, where similarity of 1 indicates that games are exactly identical (a game will have a score of 1 with itself).

Note: This analysis does not look at a game’s ratings on BGG, publisher, artist, or designer - it focuses on finding similar games based on how they play, not how they are rated or by their theme.

2.1 Most Similar Games

The table below displays games with the most similar data to Witchstone. Click on a game’s ID or Name to go straight to its profile on boardgamegeek.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2021	318560	Witchstone	1.00	6.44	7.71	2.83	1,321
1	2006	19995	Canal Mania	0.93	6.08	6.89	2.90	1,245
2	2010	72131	Caravelas	0.90	5.56	5.92	2.55	356
3	2015	180325	Elfenroads	0.89	5.88	7.01	2.27	594
4	1998	10	Elfenland	0.88	6.47	6.69	2.16	8,456
5	2019	265402	In the Hall of the Mountain King	0.88	6.86	7.73	2.82	3,134
6	2019	285133	Hacienda (Second Edition)	0.88	5.58	7.14	2.75	103
7	2020	292894	The Cost	0.88	5.79	7.23	3.54	357
8	2005	19100	Hacienda	0.88	6.49	6.93	2.63	4,109
9	2008	38735	The Swarm	0.88	5.73	6.37	2.58	616
10	2018	256792	The Oregon Trail Game: Journey to Willamette Valley	0.87	5.52	5.78	2.25	214
11	2015	173101	Council of 4	0.86	6.50	7.18	2.57	2,658
12	2009	27833	Steam	0.85	7.25	7.57	3.46	9,846
13	2020	281655	High Frontier 4 All	0.85	6.43	8.52	4.81	876
14	2006	21348	Ticket to Ride: Märklin	0.85	7.07	7.41	2.24	8,896
15	2012	119804	Empire Express	0.84	5.64	6.66	2.00	242
16	2017	213893	Yamataï	0.84	6.80	7.21	2.96	6,008
17	2003	5419	Magna Grecia	0.84	5.84	6.56	2.95	826
18	1994	130	Iron Dragon	0.84	6.16	7.00	2.94	1,609
19	2019	266179	Space Gate Odyssey	0.84	5.95	7.04	2.79	754
20	1990	157	Eurorails	0.83	6.26	7.09	2.74	1,785
21	2013	145205	L'Aéropostale	0.83	5.65	6.94	2.95	197
22	1992	1830	Nippon Rails	0.82	5.84	6.89	2.62	608
23	2003	6663	Lunar Rails	0.82	5.81	6.89	2.76	529
24	2004	9617	Russian Rails	0.82	5.78	6.96	2.75	433
25	2007	23919	China Rails	0.82	5.72	7.07	2.73	291

Click on the ID or Name for any game to go its profile page on boardgamegeek.

2.2 Most Similar, Highly Rated Games

What games are similar to Witchstone while also being highly rated by the boardgamegeek community? In this table I multiply every neighboring game’s similarity score by its GeekRating. The resulting score is an attempt to balance these two quantities.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Score	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2021	318560	Witchstone	6.44	1.00	6.44	7.71	2.83	1,321
1	2009	27833	Steam	6.18	0.85	7.25	7.57	3.46	9,846
2	2019	265402	In the Hall of the Mountain King	6.05	0.88	6.86	7.73	2.82	3,134
3	2006	21348	Ticket to Ride: Märklin	6.00	0.85	7.07	7.41	2.24	8,896
4	2005	17133	Railways of the World	5.93	0.80	7.37	7.68	3.02	11,532
5	2007	31627	Ticket to Ride: Nordic Countries	5.72	0.78	7.34	7.63	1.98	12,632
6	2009	43015	Hansa Teutonica	5.72	0.77	7.43	7.69	3.11	13,054
7	2017	213893	Yamataï	5.71	0.84	6.80	7.21	2.96	6,008
8	1998	10	Elfenland	5.71	0.88	6.47	6.69	2.16	8,456
9	2005	19100	Hacienda	5.70	0.88	6.49	6.93	2.63	4,109
10	2006	19995	Canal Mania	5.68	0.93	6.08	6.89	2.90	1,245
11	2015	173101	Council of 4	5.57	0.86	6.50	7.18	2.57	2,658
12	1999	875	Roads & Boats	5.56	0.80	6.94	7.73	4.19	3,217
13	2020	281655	High Frontier 4 All	5.48	0.85	6.43	8.52	4.81	876
14	2006	21790	Thurn and Taxis	5.45	0.79	6.94	7.10	2.26	18,902
15	2017	229220	Santa Maria	5.37	0.76	7.04	7.51	3.05	5,952
16	2014	162082	Deus	5.36	0.77	6.97	7.30	2.85	8,028
17	2011	90419	Airlines Europe	5.30	0.76	6.93	7.30	2.44	7,083
18	2003	8051	Attika	5.25	0.79	6.65	6.99	2.37	6,436
19	2015	180325	Elfenroads	5.24	0.89	5.88	7.01	2.27	594
20	1990	157	Eurorails	5.19	0.83	6.26	7.09	2.74	1,785
21	2005	17405	1846: The Race for the Midwest	5.16	0.74	6.94	7.96	3.94	2,455
22	1994	130	Iron Dragon	5.15	0.84	6.16	7.00	2.94	1,609
23	2016	166571	Tramways	5.13	0.81	6.37	7.42	3.84	1,411
24	2000	491	Web of Power	5.09	0.76	6.66	7.30	2.44	3,428
25	2020	292894	The Cost	5.08	0.88	5.79	7.23	3.54	357

2.3 Why Are Games Considered Similar?

I first ran a dimension reduction method (PCA) to identify the main points of variation for games on BGG. The first 25 components explained roughly 50% of the overall variation in the dataset, so I computed the cosine similarity between every game’s score on these 25 components.

2.3.1 Plotting All Games

The following plot shows every game on BGG plotted on the first two principal components of variation. I then highlight where the selected game and its nearest neighbors fall on these first two components.

2.3.2 Game Profiles

Similarity scores are based on 25 principal components - the next table displays the selected game and its neighbors profiles on each of these components.

2.3.3 Examining Components

What are these components? The following plot shows which features contribute the most to each component.

Published	ID	Name	Publisher(s)	Designer(s)	Artist(s)	Categories	Families	Mechanics
2021	318560	Witchstone	HUCH!	Martino Chiacchiera	Mariusz Gandzel	Fantasy	Theme: Witches	End Game Bonuses
			999 Games	Reiner Knizia				Grid Coverage
			Atalia					Hexagon Grid
			Broadway Toys LTD					Network and Route Building
			DiceTree Games					Open Drafting
			dV Giochi					Point to Point Movement
			Hobby Japan					Tile Placement
			Maldito Games
			R&R Games
			Rebel Sp. z o.o.

Individual Game Analysis